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Risk of catastrophic terrorism: an extreme value approach
Author(s) -
Mohtadi Hamid,
Murshid Antu Panini
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
journal of applied econometrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.878
H-Index - 99
eISSN - 1099-1255
pISSN - 0883-7252
DOI - 10.1002/jae.1066
Subject(s) - terrorism , extreme value theory , value (mathematics) , scale (ratio) , econometrics , computer science , economics , statistics , political science , mathematics , geography , law , cartography
This paper models the stochastic behavior of large‐scale terrorism using extreme value methods. We utilize a unique dataset composed of roughly 26,000 observations. These data provide a rich description of domestic and international terrorism between 1968 and 2006. Currently, a credible worst‐case scenario would involve losses of about 5000 to 10,000 lives. Also, the return time for events of such magnitude is shortening every year. Today, the primary threat is from conventional weapons, rather than from chemical, biological and/or radionuclear weapons. However, pronounced tails in the distribution of these incidents suggest that this threat cannot be dismissed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.