Open AccessAgricultural innovation and adaptation to climate change: Insights from US maize
Author(s) -
Lee Seungki,
Ji Yongjie,
Moschini GianCarlo
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
journal of the agricultural and applied economics association
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2769-2485
DOI - 10.1002/jaa2.20
Subject(s) - climate change , agriculture , scope (computer science) , yield (engineering) , adaptation (eye) , natural resource economics , technological change , agricultural biotechnology , offset (computer science) , environmental science , agricultural economics , economics , geography , computer science , ecology , biology , materials science , macroeconomics , archaeology , neuroscience , metallurgy , programming language
Climate change is a major threat to the global food supply, and adaptation by technological progress is essential. We show that the scope of the required innovation is challenging. Our benchmark is the estimated yield gain in US maize due to genetically engineered (GE) varieties. Extrapolated future yields, given climate projections, indicate significant negative impacts of climate change. Yield shortfalls, by the end of the century, range from 2.8 to 6.3 times the total yield gains from first‐generation GE varieties. Ambitious and targeted R&D efforts, and innovation breakthroughs, may be required to offset the negative impact of climate change.