Premium
Exploring Inherent Structural Knowledge in Mental Models through a Qualitative System Dynamics Approach
Author(s) -
Plooy Corné du
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.2020.00812.x
Subject(s) - causal loop diagram , system dynamics , population , computer science , systems thinking , complex system , management science , data science , artificial intelligence , engineering , sociology , demography
The purpose of the paper is to explore the inherent structural knowledge contained inside a mental model. Systems engineering and system dynamics share a common relative in the field of Cybernetics and systems thinking but have evolved into different areas of specialization. System dynamics has the ability to integrate more qualitative variables that are not conventionally used by systems engineering due to characteristically high levels of uncertainty or an unquantifiable nature. These qualitative variables are however part of the human mind's mental models of the world and strongly influence decision making. In this paper, qualitative structural understanding is explored through a system dynamics methodology to reveal the inherent knowledge captured in a structure. The structure that is explored is the limits‐to‐growth system archetype specifically developed into a population Causal Loop Diagram (CLD). The CLD is used as an initial mental model of structure and further expanded into a system dynamics model. The results show that population dynamics is driven by structure in the case of unique population groups such as China, Japan and Africa; but also provided insight into the global population boom in the 1900's. It also exposes that the structure of population has the ability to survive extremely harsh conditions which human tribal ancestors experienced. Results of this study confirm the value of gaining structural understanding and knowledge to support and influence decision making.