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6.5.2 Modeling and Analysis Framework for Risk‐Informed Decision Making for FAA NextGen
Author(s) -
Blackburn Mark R.,
Pyster Art,
Zigh Teresa,
Turner Richard,
DillonMerrill Robin
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.2013.tb03027.x
Subject(s) - aviation , bayesian network , process (computing) , decision support system , schedule , computer science , air traffic control , process management , systems engineering , operations research , management science , risk analysis (engineering) , engineering , business , artificial intelligence , aerospace engineering , operating system
This paper discusses an analysis and modeling framework that is being developed to support risk‐informed decision‐making for the Federal Aviation Administration Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Discussions with over 60 stakeholders identified challenges for those responsible for planning, developing, and deploying NextGen capabilities. There are a confluence of technical and non‐technical factors that are important to effectively roll out capabilities. People's internal knowledge is much greater than what is captured externally or formally. Additionally, this knowledge and the causal relationships to program factors are not formalized in a way to support this complex decision‐making process. The paper describes a Bayesian network‐based analysis and modeling framework with usage scenarios for calculating cost, schedule and benefit risks to support collaborative decision‐making throughout the phases of the FAA's acquisition lifecycle process.