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10.4.2 Convergence of Expert Opinion via the Wideband Delphi Method: An Application in Cost Estimation Models
Author(s) -
Valerdi Ricardo
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.2011.tb01282.x
Subject(s) - convergence (economics) , wideband , delphi method , computer science , commit , delphi , estimation , calibration , operations research , management science , artificial intelligence , engineering , economics , statistics , systems engineering , mathematics , database , electronic engineering , economic growth , operating system
This paper discusses the notion of collective intelligence through the application of the Wideband Delphi method as a way to obtain convergence among a group of experts. The specific application is the definition and calibration of cost estimation models that use data collected from experts as part of their calibration. Convergence is important in this case because companies need to commit to cost estimates early in the planning cycle since so many other decisions are dependent on it. Our results demonstrate that, in most cases, convergence among experts can be achieved after three rounds of the Wideband Delphi.