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4.2.1 A Diagnostic Approach to Risk Driver Definition
Author(s) -
Stump Evin
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.2006.tb02763.x
Subject(s) - brainstorming , risk analysis (engineering) , independence (probability theory) , root cause , computer science , risk management , root (linguistics) , actuarial science , risk management tools , risk assessment , operations management , statistics , engineering , artificial intelligence , business , mathematics , economics , linguistics , computer security , management , philosophy
Brainstorming is a commonly used approach to generating project risk drivers. A consequence of brainstorming is that many proposed risk drivers are superficial symptoms, or at best next‐level‐down proximate causes. Unfortunately, statements about symptoms and proximate causes are often assigned risk values such as probabilities or probability density functions. This paper will show that this practice can seriously overstate project risks. It can also lead to significant risk understatement due to issues of statistical independence. The paper will conclude by proposing a diagnostic approach that eliminates or at least minimizes this problem. It is based on root cause analysis using fishbone diagrams.