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7.1.1 Assessing the Impact of Requirements Volatility on the SE Process using Bayesian Analysis
Author(s) -
Russell Michael S.
Publication year - 2004
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.2004.tb00580.x
Subject(s) - volatility (finance) , bayesian network , computer science , risk analysis (engineering) , bayesian probability , econometrics , business , economics , artificial intelligence
There are many factors that affect the level of requirements volatility a system experiences over its lifecycle. Improper requirements generation, undocumented user expectations, conflicting design decisions, and anticipated / unanticipated world states are representative of these volatility factors. Combined, these volatility factors adversely affect successful system development. This paper proposes that a Bayesian Network can be used to support reasonable judgments concerning the most likely sources and types of requirements volatility a developing system will experience prior to starting development; and by doing so it is possible to predict the level of requirements volatility the system will experience over its lifecycle. This assessment offers valuable insight to the system's developers, particularly by providing a starting point for risk mitigation planning and execution.