Premium
6.4.2 Predicting Structural Change in Environmental Systems: a Complement to Model‐based Forecasting
Author(s) -
Osidele Olufemi
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.2003.tb02647.x
Subject(s) - complement (music) , environmental change , key (lock) , monte carlo method , computer science , stressor , sensitivity (control systems) , environmental science , climate change , environmental resource management , econometrics , ecology , engineering , mathematics , statistics , medicine , clinical psychology , biochemistry , chemistry , computer security , electronic engineering , complementation , biology , gene , phenotype
Simulation models are commonly employed for predicting both the impacts of natural stressors and the outcomes of anthropogenic actions on the environment. Such model‐based forecasting depicts a forward approach to environmental systems analysis. This paper presents a complementary backward approach that uses prescribed future scenarios to identify the dominant components of the modeled system. In particular, two Monte Carlo methods for uncertainty analysis – namely, Regionalized Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) and Tree‐Structured Density Estimation (TSDE) – are applied in detecting structural change between observed past and speculated future ecological behavior in a small southeastern US Piedmont reservoir (Lake Oglethorpe, GA). Results indicate that sediment‐water‐nutrient interactions are key elements of structural change that distinguish between the past and future scenarios analyzed. General implications for predicting structural change in environmental systems are discussed.