1 Systems Engineering in the 21 st Century

While every age has its vicissitudes, western society is exhibiting some unique, well‐defined and persistent trends that will present major social challenges in the next century. Some of these trends are identified and their implications briefly described. Population growth continues, as does our global failure to recycle renewable resources, such as fresh water. At the same time, systems engineering is continuing to evolve its problem‐solving potential, to the point where it could, and may need to, contribute to “social systems engineering”. Social engineering is all around us. Present political practice is raising society to a dynamic level in which social “scares” are invoking nation‐wide hysteria, as with BSE. Meanwhile the tempo of life and warfare rises inexorably. Systems engineering can help. By understanding the behaviour of dynamic socio‐economic systems, it is possible to create societal models that self sustain and which do not “collapse” in the familiar domino syndrome. The key, as so often in systems, is coupling and binding—of and between social groups and structures. Unpredictable non‐linear dynamic behaviour is promoted by increased coupling, while stable behaviour is exhibited by tightly‐bound functional groupings. Variety is an important factor, also—not too much, but not too little, either. Stable systems are comprised of complementary parts, implying variety with co‐operation. Size appears to be a factor. Too big, and a social structure fractures. Too small, and it cannot self‐sustain. Putting these and other systems engineering ideas together enables a variety of potential societal structures, organizations and “ways of living” to be created—a vision of the future.