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EVALUATING PROJECT RISK WITH LINGUISTIC VARIABLES
Author(s) -
Jones James H.
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
incose international symposium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2334-5837
DOI - 10.1002/j.2334-5837.1994.tb01809.x
Subject(s) - project risk management , hedge , weighting , value at risk , computer science , risk management , risk analysis (engineering) , project management , engineering , project portfolio management , economics , business , medicine , ecology , management , systems engineering , radiology , biology
A simple, reliable method for assessing the project technical risks, schedule risks, and cost risks, usable by virtually anyone with moderate arithmetic skill, is set forth. It provides an aggregate risk figure of merit range for system risk by the tailoring project work breakdown structure hierarchy and incorporating relative importance weighting in the risk model. It extends the linguistic variable quantification based on one fuzzy logic hedge operator with a utility graph. It takes an individual's or corporate psychological attitude toward risk aspects into account. It can assess uncertainty as well as event likelihood and severity. Uncertainty is retained, to provide a qualitative expression for the overall risk range as well as the expected value.