Open AccessON THE PAST AND FUTURE OF NULL HYPOTHESIS SIGNIFICANCE TESTING 1
Author(s) -
Robinson Daniel H.,
Wainer Howard
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
ets research report series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.235
H-Index - 5
ISSN - 2330-8516
DOI - 10.1002/j.2333-8504.2001.tb01866.x
Subject(s) - null hypothesis , value (mathematics) , reading (process) , psychology , statistical hypothesis testing , alternative hypothesis , epistemology , significance testing , positive economics , econometrics , statistics , mathematics , philosophy , linguistics , economics
Criticisms of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) have appeared recently in wildlife research journals (Anderson, Burnham, & Thompson, 2000; Anderson, Link, Johnson, & Burnham, 2001; Cherry, 1998; Guthery, Lusk, & Peterson, 2001; Johnson, 1999). In this essay we discuss these criticisms with regard to both current usage of NHST and plausible future use. We suggest that the historical usage of such procedures was not unreasonable and hence that current users might spend time profitably reading some of Fisher's applied work. However, we also believe that modifications to NHST and to the interpretations of its outcomes might better suit the needs of modern science. Our primary conclusion is that NHST is most often useful as an adjunct to other results (e.g., effect sizes) rather than as a stand‐alone result. We cite some examples, however, where NHST can be profitably used alone. Last, we find considerable experimental support for a less slavish attitude toward the precise value of the probability yielded from such procedures.