Open AccessPREDICTING PREDICTABILITY: THE INFLUENCE OF STUDENT AND INSTITUTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE PREDICTION OF GRADES
Author(s) -
Baird Leonard L.
Publication year - 1983
Publication title -
ets research report series
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.235
H-Index - 5
ISSN - 2330-8516
DOI - 10.1002/j.2330-8516.1983.tb00030.x
Subject(s) - predictability , psychology , correlation , statistics , predictive validity , econometrics , mathematics education , mathematics , developmental psychology , geometry
This is a report of a study that examined the statistical and institutional influences on the prediction of first‐year college grades. The basic sources of information were the Validity Study Services file which summarizes the results of College Board validity studies and the College Handbook file which includes data about college characteristics. The criterion was the size of the multiple correlation between academic predictors and first‐year college grades. The independent variables were the statistical data of the validity study and college characteristics. In general it was found, as expected, that the extent of the variation of the academic ability of the students was positively related to the size of the multiple correlation. In addition, several variables suggested the interpretation that the heterogeneity of the programs and experience of college were negatively related to the size of the multiple correlation. Further analyses investigated the characteristics that were associated with the greater or lesser efficiency of sat ‐verbal scores and sat ‐mathematical scores in the prediction of grades. Similar analyses examined the characteristics associated with greater or lesser efficiency of sat scores and the high school record. Finally, the prediction of grades at colleges of different selectivity was examined. In all of these analyses evidence was provided for the influence of institutional characteristics on the prediction of grades, an influence that needs to be taken into account when interpreting the “validity” of tests like the sat .