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Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?
Author(s) -
BahmaniOskooee Mohsen,
Kutan Ali M.,
Zhou Su
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
southern economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.762
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 2325-8012
pISSN - 0038-4038
DOI - 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2008.tb00880.x
Subject(s) - purchasing power parity , economics , unit root test , developing country , mean reversion , unit root , exchange rate , inflation (cosmology) , exchange rate flexibility , econometrics , null hypothesis , international economics , monetary economics , macroeconomics , exchange rate regime , cointegration , economic growth , physics , theoretical physics
In an effort to fight relatively high inflation, many developing countries try to manage their nominal exchange rates through official intervention. In addition, developing countries tend to have high transportation costs, tariffs, and nontariff barriers. These factors are among the sources of generating nonlinearity in real exchange rates and hence some nonlinear adjustment toward purchasing power parity (PPP) in developing countries. In this paper, we employ monthly real effective exchange rate (REER) data of 88 developing countries and test the null of nonstationarity versus an alternative of linear stationarity by the means of a conventional unit root test and compare the results with those obtained from a new test in which the null is the same but the alternative hypothesis is nonlinear stationarity. The latter test supports the PPP theory in more developing countries compared with the former test, suggesting that nonlinear adjustment toward PPP in developing countries is an important phenomenon. Reported country characterizations indicate that reversion in REER occurs more often for high‐inflation countries and for countries with high flexibility in their exchange rates.