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A Cointegration Model of Age‐Specific Fertility and Female Labor Supply in the United States
Author(s) -
McNown Robert
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
southern economic journal
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.762
H-Index - 58
eISSN - 2325-8012
pISSN - 0038-4038
DOI - 10.1002/j.2325-8012.2003.tb00574.x
Subject(s) - cointegration , fertility , economics , unemployment , educational attainment , estimation , labour economics , total fertility rate , econometrics , demographic economics , macroeconomics , research methodology , demography , population , sociology , family planning , economic growth , management
Cointegration methods suitable for estimation and testing with nonstationary data are applied to U.S. time‐series data on age‐specific fertility rates, female labor force participation rates, women's wages, unemployment rates and educational attainment, and male relative incomes. Likelihood ratio tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations that are identified as a fertility equation and a labor supply equation, respectively. Estimated long‐run relations are consistent with economic models of fertility and female labor market behavior, and these results are robust across both age‐groups and several alternative model specifications.