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Toward Stationary Populations and Beyond
Author(s) -
Kessel Elton
Publication year - 1977
Publication title -
international journal of gynecology and obstetrics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.895
H-Index - 97
eISSN - 1879-3479
pISSN - 0020-7292
DOI - 10.1002/j.1879-3479.1977.tb00675.x
Subject(s) - fertility , birth rate , demographic transition , developing country , population growth , family planning , population , total fertility rate , population control , socioeconomic status , birth control , medicine , developed country , demography , economic growth , development economics , economics , environmental health , research methodology , sociology
The world's rate of population growth is declining. Most industrialized societies have achieved or are moving rapidly toward stationary populations, but while birth rates are also declining in many developing countries, continued growth must be expected because of the large proportions of young people in these populations. New evidence of exceptions to the classical demographic transition theory indicate that declining fertility is compatible with high mortality or low socioeconomic development if acceptable means of fertility control are readily available. “Fertility silhouettes” showing differing age‐specific fertility rates indicate that present family planning programs have had a demographic impact. A review of the economic and ecologic consequences of rapid population growth justifies the conclusion that considerable effort will be required to again bring the world's population into balance with these systems. The author outlines priorities for this effort, with emphasis on the need to devise acceptable means of fertility control that will not tax the frail health care infrastructures of developing countries.