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A STOCHASTIC APPROACH TO ANALYSE WATER MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS AT THE RIVER BASIN LEVEL
Author(s) -
Mu Jianxin,
Khan Shahbaz,
Liu Qunchang,
Xu Di,
Xu Jingdong,
Wang Wenhao
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
irrigation and drainage
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.421
H-Index - 38
eISSN - 1531-0361
pISSN - 1531-0353
DOI - 10.1002/ird.1753
Subject(s) - drainage basin , water resource management , environmental science , return flow , water scarcity , hydrology (agriculture) , structural basin , irrigation , water resources , water quality , flow (mathematics) , geography , engineering , mathematics , ecology , geometry , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology , paleontology
Quantitative analysis techniques have gained a great deal of popularity with decision‐makers and analysts in recent years, and this is also the case in the hydrology sector. In this paper, the Basin‐wide Holistic Integrated Water Assessment (BHIWA) model developed by the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID) was updated by the author to simulate the water balance of the Yellow River Basin in China, as well as to analyse the impacts of land and water use on return flows of this basin under past (1980), present (2000), and future (2030 and 2050) conditions. Stochastic analysis was then carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method, by randomly selecting sets of values for the probability distributions in the cell values and formulas to quantify the risks in terms of water quantity and quality resulting from return flow. The model amply demonstrates the serious water shortage situation in the future. Developing the strategy of water‐saving measures would greatly enhance the efficiency of irrigation water use, and decrease water withdrawal for irrigation. In addition to this, a possible opportunity to transfer water from the Yangtze River to the Yellow River also came to light. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.