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On the concept of immediate probabilities
Author(s) -
Yager Ronald R.,
Engemann Kurt J.,
Filev Dimitar P.
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
international journal of intelligent systems
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.291
H-Index - 87
eISSN - 1098-111X
pISSN - 0884-8173
DOI - 10.1002/int.4550100403
Subject(s) - pessimism , probabilistic logic , optimism , computer science , artificial intelligence , expression (computer science) , mathematical economics , mathematics , psychology , epistemology , social psychology , philosophy , programming language
The problem of decision making under doubt is described. the concept of immediate probabilities is introduced. It is seen as a modification of typical probabilistic knowledge with information about the payoffs, mediated through dispositional information (optimism/pessimism), resulting in a modified formulation of an agents perception of the probabilities in effect in the current decision. We use the Dempster rule of combination to help obtain an expression for these probabilities. We show how immediate probabilities allows us to explain the Allais paradox. A number of properties of these probabilities are described. the strategic use of these probabilities are explored as a means for effecting other people's decisions. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.