Prognostic factors for pregnancy after intrauterine insemination

Objective To evaluate prognostic factors for pregnancy after intrauterine insemination ( IUI ). Methods A retrospective study was conducted among couples who underwent IUI at Universidade de São Paulo, Brazil, between January 31, 2008, and April 30, 2016. The main outcome was a positive β human chorionic gonadotropin (β‐ hCG ) test result after IUI . Univariate analyses were used to determine predictors of pregnancy. Selected numerical variables were categorized to maximize the area under the receiver operating characteristic ( ROC ) curve. Logistic regression was performed using the backward method. The quality of the model was evaluated using the R 2 (Nagelkerke) and Hosmer‐Lemeshow tests. Results Of 355 insemination cycles, 56 (15.8%) resulted in a positive β‐ hCG test result. The predictors and cutoff values that maximized the area under the ROC curve were as follows: follicle‐stimulating hormone (<7.7  mIU / mL ; P <0.001); duration of infertility (<62 menses; P <0.001); number of follicles greater than or equal to 14 mm (>1 follicle; P <0.001); baseline spermatozoa concentration (>52.0 million/ mL ; P =0.007); total ejaculate (>123.7 million; P =0.003); and grade B motility (>35%; P =0.013). These factors were able to predict 50.4% of the positive test results ( R 2 ). Conclusion Prognostic factors for pregnancy identified approximately half of all successful outcomes after IUI .