Global financial environment or monetary transmission mechanism? The (special) dynamics of Turkey's external deficit after 2002

This study develops a simple theoretical framework and conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis on (a) the role of monetary policy on external funding and loan growth, (b) the consequent growth in national spending and finally, (c) the effects of these on the external deficit of Turkey within the period of 2002 to 2016. We argue that this was a highly unusual period with abundant global liquidity, substantial decrease in domestic real interest rates, considerable growth in capital inflow and bank lending, but a remarkable deterioration in external balance. Our empirical approach sheds light on both short and long run dynamics among key domestic and global economic indicators, those related to monetary policy, capital inflows, domestic spending, exchange rates and external deficit. Overall, while clearly validating the import dependency of the Turkish economy, our findings provide mixed evidence about the role of monetary policy on external deficit. Among the monetary policy tools tested, only the reserve requirement policy, seems to have a direct effect, however, real interest rates seem to be influential only via the channel of consumer loans and consumption expenditures. Expansions in bank lending cause corresponding increases in components of national expenditure, which subsequently contribute to the deterioration in trade deficit. As for the policy implications of our findings, to reduce external deficit, in long run, lowering the import dependency of the economy and reducing the shortfall in national savings is vital, whereas, in short run, only distortionary policies, such as limiting loan growth or restricting imports, are only feasible options.