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Market based debt reduction agreements: a case study on Mexican and Polish Brady bonds
Author(s) -
Barbone Luca,
Forni Lorenzo
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
international journal of finance and economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.505
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1099-1158
pISSN - 1076-9307
DOI - 10.1002/ijfe.152
Subject(s) - cointegration , economics , debt crisis , bond , debt , null hypothesis , risk premium , structural break , unit root , financial crisis , sample (material) , monetary economics , bond market , financial system , financial economics , econometrics , macroeconomics , finance , chemistry , chromatography
This paper analyzes some aspects of the workings of the Brady bond (restructured Less Developed Countries debt) market. It concentrates on the effects of the December 1994 Mexican crisis on the risk assessment (as measured by the stripped spread ) of Poland, another Brady country. The main findings are: (i) over the sample period, the unit root hypothesis on the risk premium (measured by the stripped spread) of Mexico and Poland cannot be rejected; this is consistent with the idea that the risk premium reflects new information accruing to the market; (ii) comovements in stripped spreads between Mexico and Poland were stronger during the period of the Peso crisis: we do not reject the null of cointegration for the year that includes the crisis (July 1994–July 1995), but we do reject the null for the year starting 6 months after the crisis (July 1995–July 1996); (iii) the crisis has had a strong permanent effect on the risk assessment of Mexico with respect to the one of Poland (550 basis points circa). Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.