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SPILLOVERS BETWEEN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE AND STOCK RETURNS IN GREECE, ITALY, PORTUGAL, AND SPAIN
Author(s) -
Atukeren Erdal,
Korkmaz Turhan,
Çevik Emrah İ
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
international journal of finance and economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.505
H-Index - 39
eISSN - 1099-1158
pISSN - 1076-9307
DOI - 10.1002/ijfe.1453
Subject(s) - stock (firearms) , economics , confidence interval , stock market , volatility (finance) , financial economics , causality (physics) , econometrics , geography , statistics , mathematics , archaeology , context (archaeology) , physics , quantum mechanics
This paper employs Hong's (2001) causality‐in‐mean and causality‐in‐variance tests to investigate the spillovers between business confidence and stock returns for the four economically distressed Southern European countries, namely Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The sample uses monthly data and covers the period from January 1988 to December 2010. Our causality‐in‐mean results indicate that there is feedback relationship between stock returns and business confidence in Portugal. The direction of causality‐in‐mean runs from business confidence to stock returns in Italy, but it is in the reverse direction in the case of Spain. Nevertheless, there is still evidence of a contemporaneous interaction between business confidence and stock returns in both Italy and Spain. On the other hand, causality‐in‐variance indicate the presence of volatility spillovers from business confidence to stock returns in Portugal, while a causal relationship is found in the current month in the case of Italy. Business confidence causes stock returns only in the mean in Greece. These results indicate that the stock market and business confidence relationship has its own idiosyncratic properties and that the stock market reactions to the current macroeconomic environment and expectations about the future developments might evolve differently in each country. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.