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Combining 33 genetic variants with prostate‐specific antigen for prediction of prostate cancer: Longitudinal study
Author(s) -
Johansson Mattias,
Holmström Benny,
Hinchliffe Sally R.,
Bergh Anders,
Stenman UlfHåkan,
Hallmans Göran,
Wiklund Fredrik,
Stattin Pär
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
international journal of cancer
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.475
H-Index - 234
eISSN - 1097-0215
pISSN - 0020-7136
DOI - 10.1002/ijc.25986
Subject(s) - prostate cancer , medicine , confidence interval , prostate specific antigen , receiver operating characteristic , cohort , oncology , prostate , prospective cohort study , cancer , area under the curve , cohort study , gynecology
Abstract The aim of this study was to investigate if a genetic risk score including 33 common genetic variants improves prediction of prostate cancer when added to measures of prostate‐specific antigen (PSA). We conducted a case–control study nested within the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Cohort (NSHDC), a prospective cohort in northern Sweden. A total of 520 cases and 988 controls matched for age, and date of blood draw were identified by linkage between the regional cancer register and the NSHDC. Receiver operating characteristic curves with area under curve (AUC) estimates were used as measures of prostate cancer prediction. The AUC for the genetic risk score was 64.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 61.4–67.2], and the AUC for total PSA and the ratio of free to total PSA was 86.2% (95% CI = 84.4–88.1). A model including the genetic risk score, total PSA and the ratio of free to total PSA increased the AUC to 87.2% (95% CI = 85.4–89.0, p difference = 0.002). The addition of a genetic risk score to PSA resulted in a marginal improvement in prostate cancer prediction that would not seem useful for clinical risk assessment.