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Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations
Author(s) -
Karvetski Christopher W,
Lambert James H,
Linkov Igor
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
integrated environmental assessment and management
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.665
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1551-3793
pISSN - 1551-3777
DOI - 10.1002/ieam.137
Subject(s) - multiple criteria decision analysis , risk analysis (engineering) , stakeholder , decision analysis , work (physics) , reliability (semiconductor) , computer science , investment (military) , environmental economics , operations research , business , engineering , power (physics) , mechanical engineering , statistics , physics , public relations , mathematics , quantum mechanics , political science , economics , politics , law
Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision‐analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2011;7:228–236. © 2010 SETAC