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Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone
Author(s) -
Ishikawa Hirohiko,
Oku Yuichiro,
Kim Sunmin,
Takemi Tetsuya,
Yoshino Jun
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.9830
Subject(s) - typhoon , tropical cyclone , climatology , mesoscale meteorology , meteorology , flood myth , inversion (geology) , storm , environmental science , tropical cyclone scales , track (disk drive) , structural basin , geology , cyclone (programming language) , geography , computer science , archaeology , field programmable gate array , computer hardware , operating system , paleontology
The damage to society caused by tropical cyclones depends largely on the storm track relative to geography. A procedure is proposed to generate different typhoon tracks deviating from the original track of a given reference case. In this procedure, the position of a typhoon is artificially shifted at a certain time before landing in a physically consistent way by applying potential vorticity inversion methodology. After shifting the typhoon position, the subsequent progress is again simulated by a mesoscale weather model. The procedure is applied to a strong typhoon that emerged in a global warming experiment using an atmospheric general circulation model. Various realizations of typhoon landfall cases are generated. Using the output of a suite of realization of different tracks, the worst case scenario is discussed in terms of the river discharge in the Tone River basin, Japan. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.