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A probabilistic model for real‐time flood warning based on deterministic flood inundation mapping
Author(s) -
Jang JiunHuei,
Yu PaoShan,
Yeh SenHai,
Fu JinCheng,
Huang ChenJia
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.8220
Subject(s) - flood myth , probabilistic logic , computer science , warning system , flood forecasting , flood warning , correctness , 100 year flood , calibration , data mining , environmental science , statistics , artificial intelligence , geography , mathematics , algorithm , telecommunications , archaeology
Abstract Deterministic flood inundation mapping is valuable for the investigation of detailed flood depth and extent. However, when these data are used for real‐time flood warning, uncertainty arises while encountering the difficulties of timely response, message interpretation and performance evaluation that makes statistical analysis necessary. By incorporating deterministic flood inundation map outputs statistically by means of logistic regression, this paper presents a probabilistic real‐time flood warning model determining region‐based flood probability directly from rainfall, being efficient in computation, clear in message, and valid in physical meaning. The calibration and validation of the probabilistic model show a satisfactory overall correctness rate, with the hit rate far surpassing the false alarm rate in issuing flood warning for historical events. Further analyses show that the probabilistic model is effective in evaluating the level of uncertainty lying within flood warning which can be reduced by several techniques proposed in order to improve warning performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.