Premium
Climate change impacts—throwing the dice?
Author(s) -
Blöschl Günter,
Montanari Alberto
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.7574
Subject(s) - dice , throwing , computer science , citation , library science , operations research , mechanical engineering , engineering , mathematics , geometry
Although Einstein was referring to quantum mechanics in this statement rather than to hydrology, one sometimes does wonder whether we are throwing the dice in hydrological analyses. When two experts estimate the 100-year flood in a small ungauged catchment, chances are that their estimates are very different. When two groups predict the effects of future hydrological changes on stream flow and recharge for the same catchment, the results will hardly be consistent. Yet, climate change impact analyses have become a standard method in our tool box for addressing issues that seem to be of overwhelming concern to the society today. In this paper, we argue that impact studies often tend to be overly optimistic about the reliability of their predictions, and overly pessimistic about the effects on society. Just as a medical doctor who, when in doubt, would say that his patient is going to die—to be on the safe side. We will contrast this assessment with our views on the current state of change prediction, and outline the opportunities in this exciting field of hydrologic research.