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Trend and persistence of precipitation under climate change scenarios for Kansabati basin, India
Author(s) -
Mishra Ashok K.,
Özger Mehmet,
Singh Vijay P.
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.7342
Subject(s) - precipitation , environmental science , downscaling , climatology , climate change , persistence (discontinuity) , period (music) , structural basin , coupled model intercomparison project , gcm transcription factors , trend analysis , climate model , general circulation model , meteorology , geography , geology , mathematics , oceanography , acoustics , paleontology , physics , geotechnical engineering , statistics
With increasing uncertainties associated with climate change, precipitation characteristics pattern are receiving much attention these days. This paper investigated the impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kansabati basin, India. Trend and persistence of projected precipitation based on annual, wet and dry periods were studied using global climate model (GCM) and scenario uncertainty. A downscaling method based on Bayesian neural network was applied to project precipitation generated from six GCMs using two scenarios (A2 and B2). The precipitation values for any of three time periods (dry, wet and annual) do not show significant increasing or decreasing trends during 2001–2050 time period. There is likely an increasing trend in precipitation for annual and wet periods during 2051–2100 based on A2 scenario and a decreasing trend in dry period precipitation based on B2 scenario. Persistence during dry period precipitation among stations varies drastically based on historical data with the highest persistence towards north‐west part of the basin. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.