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Annual streamflow modelling with asymmetric distribution function
Author(s) -
Sarlak Nermin
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.6949
Subject(s) - streamflow , autoregressive model , normality , econometrics , residual , series (stratigraphy) , mathematics , function (biology) , environmental science , statistics , drainage basin , geology , geography , algorithm , cartography , evolutionary biology , biology , paleontology
Classical autoregressive models (AR) have been used for forecasting streamflow data in spite of restrictive assumptions, such as the normality assumption for innovations. The main reason for making this assumption is the difficulties faced in finding model parameters for non‐normal distribution functions. However, the modified maximum likelihood (MML) procedure used for estimating autoregressive model parameters assumes a non‐normally distributed residual series. The aim in this study is to compare the performance of the AR(1) model with asymmetric innovations with that of the classical autoregressive model for hydrological annual data. The models considered are applied to annual streamflow data obtained from two streamflow gauging stations in Kızılırmak Basin, Turkey. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.