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Long‐term runoff forecasting by combining hydrological models and meteorological records
Author(s) -
Yang TaoChang,
Yu PaoShan,
Chen ChiangChi
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.5658
Subject(s) - inflow , surface runoff , environmental science , term (time) , hydrology (agriculture) , meteorology , calibration , climatology , geology , geography , mathematics , statistics , physics , geotechnical engineering , quantum mechanics , biology , ecology
Reservoir operation is generally based on the inflows of the upstream catchment of the reservoir. If the arriving inflows can be forecasted, that can benefit reservoir operation and management. This study attempts to construct a long‐term inflow‐forecasting model by combining a continuous rainfall–runoff model with the long‐term weather outlook from the Central Weather Bureau of Taiwan. The analytical results demonstrate that the continuous rainfall–runoff model has good inflow simulation performance by using 10‐day meteorological and inflow records over a 33‐year period for model calibration and verification. The long‐term inflow forecasting during the dry season was further conducted by combining the continuous rainfall–runoff model and the long‐term weather outlook, which was found to have good performance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.