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Indirect estimation of ungauged peak discharges in a bedrock channel with reference to design discharge selection
Author(s) -
Carling Paul A.,
Grodek Tamir
Publication year - 1994
Publication title -
hydrological processes
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.222
H-Index - 161
eISSN - 1099-1085
pISSN - 0885-6087
DOI - 10.1002/hyp.3360080602
Subject(s) - bedrock , hydrograph , flood myth , hydrology (agriculture) , return period , channel (broadcasting) , environmental science , drainage basin , estimation , geology , geomorphology , geography , geotechnical engineering , cartography , computer science , archaeology , management , economics , computer network
Geomorphological evidence and recent trash lines were used as stage indicators in a step‐backwater computer model of high discharges through an ungauged bedrock channel. The simulation indicated that the peak discharge from the 26.7 m 2 catchment was close to 150m 3 s −1 during the passage of Hurricane Charlie in August 1986. This estimate can be compared with an estimate of 130–160 m 3 s −1 obtained using the Flood Studies Report (FSR) unit hydrograph methodology. Other palaeostage marks indicate that higher stages have occurred at an earlier time associated with a discharge of 200 m 3 s −1 . However, consideration of both the geometry of a plunge pool and transport criteria for bedrock blocks in the channel indicates that floods since 1986 have not exceeded 150 m 3 s −1 . Given that the estimated probable maximum flood (PMF) calculated from revised FSR procedure is at least 240 m 3 s −1 , it is concluded that compelling evidence for floods equal to the PMF is lacking. Taking into consideration the uncertainty of the discharge estimation, the 1986 flood computed using field evidence has a minimum return period of 100 years using the FSR procedure. This may be compared with a return period for the same event in the neighbouring gauged River Greta of > 100 years and a rainfall return period of 190 years. In as much as discharges of similar order to FSR estimates are indicated, it is concluded (a) that regional geomorphological evidence and flood simulation within ungauged catchments may be useful as a verification for hydrological estimates of recent widespread flood magnitude and (b) that palaeohydraulic computation can be useful in determining the magnitude of the local maximum [historic] flood when determining design discharges for hydraulic structures within specific catchments.