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Risk Stratification Based on Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation Score in Patients With Child‐Pugh B Cirrhosis and Acute Variceal Bleeding
Author(s) -
Lv Yong,
Wang Zhengyu,
Li Kai,
Wang Qiuhe,
Bai Wei,
Yuan Xulong,
Yu Tianlei,
Niu Jing,
Yang Zhiping,
Zhu Xuan,
Zhao Jianbo,
Xue Hui,
Jiang Zaibo,
Zhuge Yuzheng,
Zhang Chunqing,
Sun Junhui,
Ding Pengxu,
Ren Weixin,
Li Yingchun,
Zhang Kewei,
Zhang Wenguang,
Guo Wengang,
Luo Bohan,
Li Xiaomei,
Yuan Jie,
Han Na,
Zhu Ying,
He Chuangye,
Yin Zhanxin,
Fan Daiming,
Han Guohong
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
hepatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.488
H-Index - 361
eISSN - 1527-3350
pISSN - 0270-9139
DOI - 10.1002/hep.31478
Subject(s) - medicine , decompensation , cirrhosis , portal hypertension , ascites , gastroenterology , transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt , receiver operating characteristic , hazard ratio , model for end stage liver disease , nomogram , varices , risk stratification , confidence interval , liver transplantation , transplantation
Background and Aims Optimal candidates for early transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) in patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB) remain unclear. This study aimed to test the hypothesis that risk stratification using the Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation score (CLIF‐C ADs) may be useful to identify a subgroup at high risk of mortality or further bleeding that may benefit from early TIPS in patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB. Approach and Results We analyzed the pooled individual data from two previous studies of 608 patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB who received standard treatment between 2010 and 2017 in China. The concordance index values of CLIF‐C ADs for 6‐week and 1‐year mortality (0.715 and 0.708) were significantly better than those of active bleeding at endoscopy (0.633 [ P < 0.001] and 0.556 [ P < 0.001]) and other prognostic models. With X‐tile software identifying an optimal cutoff value, patients were categorized as low risk (CLIF‐C ADs <48), intermediate risk (CLIF‐C ADs 48‐56), and high risk (CLIF‐C ADs >56), with a 5.6%, 16.8%, and 25.4% risk of 6‐week death, respectively. Nevertheless, the performance of CLIF‐C ADs for predicting a composite endpoint of 6‐week death or further bleeding was not satisfactory (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve [AUC], 0.588). A nomogram incorporating components of CLIF‐C ADs and albumin, platelet, active bleeding, and ascites significantly improved the prediction accuracy (AUC, 0.725). Conclusions In patients with Child‐Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, risk stratification using CLIF‐C ADs identifies a subgroup with high risk of death that may derive survival benefit from early TIPS. With improved prediction accuracy for 6‐week death or further bleeding, the data‐driven nomogram may help to stratify patients in randomized trials. Future external validation of these findings in patients with different etiologies is required.