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Identifying an Optimal Liver Frailty Index Cutoff to Predict Waitlist Mortality in Liver Transplant Candidates
Author(s) -
Kardashian Ani,
Ge Jin,
McCulloch Charles E.,
Kappus Matthew R.,
Dunn Michael A.,
DuarteRojo Andres,
Volk Michael L.,
Rahimi Robert S.,
Verna Elizabeth C.,
Ganger Daniel R.,
Ladner Daniela,
Dodge Jennifer L.,
Boyarsky Brian,
McAdamsDeMarco Mara,
Segev Dorry L.,
Lai Jennifer C.
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
hepatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 5.488
H-Index - 361
eISSN - 1527-3350
pISSN - 0270-9139
DOI - 10.1002/hep.31406
Subject(s) - medicine , cutoff , liver disease , confidence interval , area under the curve , liver transplantation , cirrhosis , gastroenterology , transplantation , physics , quantum mechanics
Background and Aims Frailty, as measured by the Liver Frailty Index (LFI), is associated with liver transplant (LT) waitlist mortality. We sought to identify an optimal LFI cutoff that predicts waitlist mortality. Approach and Results Adults with cirrhosis awaiting LT without hepatocellular carcinoma at nine LT centers in the United States with LFI assessments were included. Multivariable competing risk analysis assessed the relationship between LFI and waitlist mortality. We identified a single LFI cutoff by evaluating the fit of the competing risk models, searching for the cutoff that gave the best model fit (as judged by the pseudo‐log‐likelihood). We ascertained the area under the curve (AUC) in an analysis of waitlist mortality to find optimal cutoffs at 3, 6, or 12 months. We used the AUC to compare the discriminative ability of LFI+Model for End Stage Liver Disease‐sodium (MELDNa) versus MELDNa alone in 3‐month waitlist mortality prediction. Of 1,405 patients, 37 (3%), 82 (6%), and 135 (10%) experienced waitlist mortality at 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively. LFI was predictive of waitlist mortality across a broad LFI range: 3.7‐5.2. We identified an optimal LFI cutoff of 4.4 (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.0‐4.8) for 3‐month mortality, 4.2 (95% CI, 4.1‐4.4) for 6‐month mortality, and 4.2 (95% CI, 4.1‐4.4) for 12‐month mortality. The AUC for prediction of 3‐month mortality for MELDNa was 0.73; the addition of LFI to MELDNa improved the AUC to 0.79. Conclusions LFI is predictive of waitlist mortality across a wide spectrum of LFI values. The optimal LFI cutoff for waitlist mortality was 4.4 at 3 months and 4.2 at 6 and 12 months. The discriminative performance of LFI+MELDNa was greater than MELDNa alone. Our data suggest that incorporating LFI with MELDNa can more accurately represent waitlist mortality in LT candidates.