Pretreatment prediction of virological response to peginterferon plus ribavirin therapy in chronic hepatitis C patients using viral and host factors

The interferon sensitivity determining region (ISDR) of the hepatitis C virus (HCV) and T‐helper type 1 and type 2 (Th1/Th2) ratio were analyzed along with other host and viral factors for their ability to predict the response of patients with chronic hepatitis C to pegylated interferon alpha‐2b (Peg‐IFN) and ribavirin (RBV) combination therapy. A total of 120 chronic hepatitis C patients with genotype 1 HCV and high baseline viral loads who were to undergo combination therapy scheduled for 48 weeks were enrolled. Sustained virologic response (SVR) was achieved in 54 (45%) of the 120 patients. The pretreatment factors significantly associated with SVR by logistic regression analysis were ISDR mutant [odds ratio (OR) = 86.0, P = 0.0008], Th1/Th2 ratio ≤ 15.5 (OR = 9.6, P = 0.0021), body weight 59 kg, and neutrophil count 2,300/μL. A logistic regression model to estimate SVR before combination therapy was constructed using these four factors. Patients fell into three groups when plotted according to estimated and actual SVR rates: actual SVR rate was 91% (32/35) in the high sensitivity group, 41% (15/37) in the intermediate sensitivity group, and 15% (7/48) in the low sensitivity group. Rapid or early virological responses were seen in 80% of patients with high sensitivity and who achieved SVR but were found in only 40% of patients with intermediate or low sensitivity. Null‐ and very late virological responses were quite rare in the high sensitivity group. In conclusion, a logistic regression model that includes the sequence of ISDR of the HCV, Th1/Th2 ratio, body weight, and neutrophil count can be useful for accurately predicting actual SVR rate before combination therapy. (H EPATOLOGY 2008;48:1753‐1760.)