A simple noninvasive index for predicting long‐term outcome of chronic hepatitis C after interferon‐based therapy

Changes in hepatic fibrosis after interferon‐based therapy may be important in determining the long‐term outcome of chronic hepatitis C (CHC). The use of liver biopsy for posttreatment assessment is not a viable option as a routine follow‐up procedure. This study evaluated the predictive value of a simple noninvasive index, the aspartate aminotransferase (AST)‐to‐platelet ratio index assessed 6 months after end of treatment (APRI‐M6). We evaluated APRI‐M6, platelet‐M6, AST‐M6, and α‐fetoprotein‐M6 of 776 CHC patients with interferon‐based therapy as well as the parameters at baseline of 562 untreated patients who were evaluated to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and mortality, during a mean follow‐up period of 4.75 (1.0–12.2) and 5.15 (1.0–16) years, respectively. Based on analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and using optimized cutoff point, the APRI‐M6 and platelet‐M6 had superior prediction models for long‐term outcome with area under the curve of 0.870–0.875 and 0.824–0.847, respectively, and accuracy of 78%–81% and 76%–78%, respectively, for interferon‐based‐treated patients. The predictive values of all 4 parameters were poor in untreated patients. In subgroup analysis, the APRI‐M6 provided a more consistent prediction ratio than platelet‐M6 for sustained responders and cirrhosis‐free subgroups; both parameters had similar prediction power for nonresponders and were unsatisfactory in patients with cirrhosis. According to Cox proportional hazards analysis, cirrhosis and APRI‐M6 were the 2 most important factors for predicting HCC. In conclusion , APRI‐M6 can accurately predict the long‐term outcome of patients subjected to interferon‐based treatment. Nevertheless, the data needs further validation, particularly since the predictive accuracy for patients with cirrhosis is low. (H EPATOLOGY 2006;44:1086–1097.)