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Nomograms for predicting survival outcomes in intensity‐modulated radiotherapy era of nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A study based on Epstein – Barr virus DNA biological responses
Author(s) -
Yang Kaixuan,
Li Mei,
Zhu Jinbing,
Zeng Lei,
Tian Jiangfang,
Xie Wenji,
Shou Arthur,
Li Yiping,
Li Guangjun
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
head and neck
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.012
H-Index - 127
eISSN - 1097-0347
pISSN - 1043-3074
DOI - 10.1002/hed.26654
Subject(s) - nomogram , nasopharyngeal carcinoma , medicine , concordance , oncology , radiation therapy , confidence interval , chemotherapy , cohort
Background Treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is evolving toward Intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era, which requires patient‐specific reestimation of survival outcomes in modern health care. Methods A total of 488 detectable pre‐treatment Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA patients (stage II‐IVa) treated with induction chemotherapy (IC) and IMRT were examined (training set, n = 325; validation set, n = 163). Results Concurrent chemotherapy (CC) was still an independent prognosticator for overall survival (OS) and progression‐free survival (PFS). Both nomograms included age, T classification, N classification, post‐IC EBV DNA, and CC. Predictions correlated well with observed 3‐/5‐year OS and PFS. The concordance index was 0.776 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.86) for OS and 0.742 (95% CI 0.65–0.83) for PFS in the validation cohort. The nomograms can successfully classify patients into low‐ and high‐risk groups. Conclusion The validated nomograms provided useful prediction of OS and PFS for detectable pre‐treatment EBV DNA patients with NPC in IMRT era.