Premium
Postoperative nomogram for predicting disease‐specific death and recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma
Author(s) -
Lang Brian H. H.,
Wong Carlos K. H.,
Yu Hyeong Won,
Lee Kyu Eun
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
head and neck
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.012
H-Index - 127
eISSN - 1097-0347
pISSN - 1043-3074
DOI - 10.1002/hed.24201
Subject(s) - nomogram , medicine , thyroid carcinoma , disease , oncology , surgery , thyroid
Background A nomogram could provide individualized prognostic for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). The purpose of our study was to develop and validate a new nomogram. Methods Consecutive patients with PTC from 2 different institutions were analyzed and divided into the development ( n = 849) and validation ( n = 275) sets. The former was used for formulating a nomogram in predicting disease‐specific death and recurrence, whereas the latter was for validation (by area under the curve [AUC]). Results The nomogram had excellent discrimination in predicting 10‐year disease‐specific death and recurrence (0.984; 0.969–0.998; and 0.743; 0.658–0.828; respectively). A score <30 meant 100% of the patients survived at 10 years and those who died within 10 years had a score ≥30. A score <17 meant almost all the patients (91.04%) were disease‐free within 10 years. Conclusion Using a competing‐risk model, a nomogram was created with excellent discriminatory ability and accuracy in predicting 10‐year disease‐specific death and recurrence for PTC. Our results implied its potential for wider use in other populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 38 : E1256–E1263, 2016