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Financing needs, spending projection, and the future of health in Brazil
Author(s) -
Rocha Rudi,
Furtado Isabela,
Spinola Paula
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
health economics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.55
H-Index - 109
eISSN - 1099-1050
pISSN - 1057-9230
DOI - 10.1002/hec.4241
Subject(s) - leverage (statistics) , health spending , finance , equity (law) , public spending , business , private sector , public sector , fiscal sustainability , external financing , public economics , economics , health care , economic growth , health insurance , debt , economy , machine learning , politics , computer science , law , political science
In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health‐financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public–private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low‐ and middle‐income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.