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Attributing intensification of precipitation extremes to human influence
Author(s) -
Zhang Xuebin,
Wan Hui,
Zwiers Francis W.,
Hegerl Gabriele C.,
Min SeungKi
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.51010
Subject(s) - precipitation , coupled model intercomparison project , environmental science , climatology , northern hemisphere , southern hemisphere , atmospheric sciences , climate model , climate change , mean radiant temperature , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography
This study provides estimates of the human contribution to the observed widespread intensification of precipitation extremes. We consider the annual maxima of daily (RX1day) and 5 day consecutive (RX5day) precipitation amounts over the Northern Hemisphere land area for 1951–2005 and compare observed changes with expected responses to external forcings as simulated by multiple coupled climate models participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The effect of anthropogenic forcings can be detected in extreme precipitation observations, both individually and when simultaneously estimating anthropogenic and naturally forced changes. The effect of natural forcings is not detectable. We estimate that human influence has intensified annual maximum 1 day precipitation in sampled Northern Hemisphere locations by 3.3% [1.1% to 5.8%, >90% confidence interval] on average. This corresponds to an average intensification in RX1day of 5.2% [1.3%, 9.3%] per degree increase in observed global mean surface temperature consistent with the Clausius‐Clapeyron relationship.