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Are recent Arctic ozone losses caused by increasing greenhouse gases?
Author(s) -
Rieder Harald E.,
Polvani Lorenzo M.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.50835
Subject(s) - greenhouse gas , ozone , stratosphere , atmospheric sciences , environmental science , ozone depletion , ozone layer , climatology , arctic , climate change , proxy (statistics) , polar , the arctic , greenhouse effect , meteorology , global warming , geology , geography , mathematics , physics , oceanography , statistics , astronomy
It has been suggested that the Arctic ozone losses observed in recent years might be a manifestation of climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases. We here offer evidence to the contrary, by focusing on the volume of polar stratospheric clouds ( V PSC ), a convenient proxy for polar ozone loss whose simplicity allows for easily reproducible results. First, we analyze the time series of V PSC in three reanalysis data sets and find no statistically significant trends in V PSC –nor changes in their probability density functions–over the period 1979–2011. Second, we analyze V PSC in a stratosphere‐resolving chemistry‐climate model forced uniquely with increasing greenhouse gases following the A1B scenario: here too, we find no significant changes in V PSC over the entire 21st century. Taken together, these results strongly suggest that the sporadic high ozone losses in recent years have not been caused by increasing greenhouse gases.