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Impacts of changes in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation on particulate matter and human health in Europe
Author(s) -
R. Pausata Francesco S.,
Pozzoli Luca,
Dingenen Rita Van,
Vignati Elisabetta,
Cavalli Fabrizia,
Dentener Frank J.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.50720
Subject(s) - north atlantic oscillation , environmental science , particulates , climatology , atmospheric circulation , mediterranean climate , human health , precipitation , climate change , atmospheric sciences , oceanography , geography , meteorology , environmental health , geology , chemistry , medicine , archaeology , organic chemistry
In this study we use a global climate model to assess particulate matter (PM) variability induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in Europe during winter and the potential impact on human health of a future shift in the NAO mean state. Our study shows that extreme NAO phases in the 1990s modulated most of the interannual variability of winter PM concentrations in several European countries. Increased PM concentrations as a result of a positive shift in the mean winter NAO of one standard deviation would lead to about 5500 additional premature deaths in Mediterranean countries, compared to the simulated average PM health impact for the year 2000. In central‐northern Europe, instead, higher wind speed and increased PM removal by precipitation lead to negative PM concentration anomalies with associated health benefits. We suggest that the NAO index is a useful indicator for the role of interannual atmospheric variability on large‐scale pollution‐health impacts.