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The role of climate change and ozone recovery for the future timing of major stratospheric warmings
Author(s) -
Ayarzagüena Blanca,
Langematz Ulrike,
Meul Stefanie,
Oberländer Sophie,
Abalichin Janna,
Kubin Anne
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.50477
Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , polar vortex , ozone depletion , forcing (mathematics) , atmospheric sciences , ozone layer , climate change , ozone , climate model , el niño southern oscillation , stratosphere , oceanography , meteorology , geology , geography
Future changes in the occurrence rates of major stratospheric warmings (MSWs) have recently been identified in chemistry‐climate model (CCM) simulations, but without reaching a consensus, potentially due to the competition of different forcings. We examine future variations in the occurrence rates of MSWs in transient and timeslice simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) CCM, with a focus on the individual effect of different external factors. Although no statistically significant variation is found in the decadal‐mean frequency of MSWs, a shift of their timing toward midwinter is detected in the future. The strengthening of the polar vortex in early winter is explained by recovering ozone levels following the future decrease in ozone‐depleting substances. In midwinter, a stronger dynamical forcing associated with changes in tropical sea surface temperatures will lead to more MSWs, through a similar mechanism that explains the stratospheric response to El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO).