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Reducing uncertainty in the climatic interpretations of speleothem δ 18 O
Author(s) -
Jex C. N.,
Phipps S. J.,
Baker A.,
Bradley C.
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.50467
Subject(s) - speleothem , stalagmite , paleoclimatology , precipitation , climatology , karst , geology , climate model , atmospheric circulation , environmental science , climate change , cave , oceanography , holocene , meteorology , paleontology , geography , archaeology
We explore two principal areas of uncertainty associated with paleoclimate reconstructions from speleothem δ 18 O (δ 18 O spel ): potential non‐stationarity in relationships between local climate and larger‐scale atmospheric circulation, and routing of water through the karst aquifer. Using a δ 18 O spel record from Turkey, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model and the KarstFOR karst hydrology model, we confirm the stationarity of relationships between cool season precipitation and regional circulation dynamics associated with the North Sea‐Caspian pattern since 1 ka. Stalagmite δ 18 O is predicted for the last 500 years, using precipitation and temperature output from the CSIRO Mk3L model and synthetic δ 18 O of precipitation as inputs for the KarstFOR model. Interannual variability in the δ 18 O spel record is captured by KarstFOR, but we cannot reproduce the isotopically lighter conditions of the sixteenth to seventeenth centuries. We argue that forward models of paleoclimate proxies (such as KarstFOR) embedded within isotope‐enabled general circulation models are now required.