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Decadal predictability of tropical basin average and global average sea surface temperatures in CMIP5 experiments with the HadCM3, GFDL‐CM2.1, NCAR‐CCSM4, and MIROC5 global Earth System Models
Author(s) -
Mehta Vikram M.,
Wang Hui,
Mendoza Katherin
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.50236
Subject(s) - hindcast , hadcm3 , climatology , predictability , environmental science , coupled model intercomparison project , sea surface temperature , climate model , earth system science , initialization , volcano , climate change , geology , oceanography , general circulation model , gcm transcription factors , physics , quantum mechanics , seismology , computer science , programming language
This paper describes initial results from a broadscale study to assess decadal climate hindcast skills of the HadCM3, GFDL‐CM2.1, NCAR‐CCSM4, and MIROC5 global Earth System Models (ESMs) in experiments conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. Analyses of decadal hindcast and simulation experiments using historical aerosol optical depths show statistically significant decadal predictability skill of global average and tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies during 1961–2010. The skill, however, varies by averaging region and decade. It was also found that volcanic eruptions influence SSTs and are one of the sources of decadal SST hindcast skill. In the actual climate system, however, volcanic eruptions themselves are not predictable, and therefore, their effects on the climate system can only be predicted after eruptions. In the four ESMs utilized in this study, decadal hindcast skills of SST anomalies over ocean basin size averaging regions generally improve due to model initialization with observed data.