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Irreversible mass loss of Canadian Arctic Archipelago glaciers
Author(s) -
Lenaerts Jan T. M.,
Angelen Jan H.,
Broeke Michiel R.,
Gardner Alex S.,
Wouters Bert,
Meijgaard Erik
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/grl.50214
Subject(s) - meltwater , glacier , glacier mass balance , snow , arctic , glacier ice accumulation , climatology , tundra , environmental science , cryosphere , geology , archipelago , atmospheric sciences , physical geography , ice stream , sea ice , geomorphology , oceanography , geography
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) contains the largest volume of glacier ice on Earth outside of Antarctica and Greenland. In the absence of significant calving, CAA glacier mass balance is governed by the difference between surface snow accumulation and meltwater runoff—surface mass balance. Here we use a coupled atmosphere/snow model to simulate present‐day and 21st century CAA glacier surface mass balance. Through comparison with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mass anomalies and in situ observations, we show that the model is capable of representing present‐day CAA glacier mass loss, as well as the dynamics of the seasonal snow cover on the CAA tundra. Next, we force this model until 2100 with a moderate climate warming scenario (AR5 RCP4.5). We show that enhanced meltwater runoff from CAA glaciers is not sufficiently compensated by increased snowfall. Extrapolation of these results toward an AR5 multimodel ensemble results in sustained 21st century CAA glacier mass loss in the vast majority (>99%) of the ~7000 temperature realizations.