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Predictors of incidence of clinically significant depressive symptoms in the elderly: 10‐year follow‐up study of the Bambui cohort study of aging
Author(s) -
Nascimento Kenia Kelly Fiaux,
Pereira Kelly Silva,
Firmo Josélia O. A.,
LimaCosta Maria Fernanda,
Diniz Breno S.,
CastroCosta Erico
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
international journal of geriatric psychiatry
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.28
H-Index - 129
eISSN - 1099-1166
pISSN - 0885-6230
DOI - 10.1002/gps.4271
Subject(s) - incidence (geometry) , cohort , cohort study , medicine , depressive symptoms , gerontology , psychology , demography , psychiatry , anxiety , physics , optics , sociology
Objective We aim to evaluate the incidence rate and predictors of clinically significant depressive symptoms (CSDS) over 10 years of follow‐up from a population‐based cohort study (the Bambui Cohort Study of Aging). Methods We calculated the predictors of incidence of CSDS over 10 years of follow‐up by the Cox proportional regression analysis. Depressive symptoms were evaluated by GHQ‐12 and scores of five or higher indicated CSDS. Results The annualized incidence rate of clinically significant depressive symptoms was 46 per 1000 person‐year. In the multivariate analysis, the main predictors of CSDS were cognitive impairment (HR = 1,69 CI 95% [1,20 – 2.37], p = 0.002), diabetes (HR = 1.59 CI 95% [1.14 – 2.20], p = 0.006), use of 2 to 4 (HR = 1,95 CI 95% [1.21 – 3.15], p = 0.006) and of 5 or more medications in the last 90 days (HR = 2.19 CI 95% [1.31 – 3.66], p = 0.003) and higher baseline depressive symptoms (HR = 2.12 CI 95% [1.61 – 2.78], p < 0.001). Conclusion These results highlight the importance of higher depressive symptoms, cognitive impairment and endocrine‐metabolic disorders to the development of depressive symptoms in older adults. These findings provide a framework for the development of interventions to prevent the emergence of clinically significant depressive symptoms in the elderly. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.