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Sensitivity analysis of the build decision for carbon capture and sequestration projects
Author(s) -
Fischbeck Paul S.,
Gerard David,
McCoy Sean T.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
greenhouse gases: science and technology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.45
H-Index - 32
ISSN - 2152-3878
DOI - 10.1002/ghg.1270
Subject(s) - natural gas , carbon sequestration , carbon capture and storage (timeline) , supercritical fluid , coal , environmental science , fossil fuel , greenhouse gas , waste management , environmental economics , carbon price , software deployment , engineering , natural resource economics , climate change , economics , carbon dioxide , chemistry , software engineering , organic chemistry , ecology , biology
Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is a technology that could allow for continued use of fossil fuels in a carbon‐constrained world, smoothing the transition to non‐fossil energy sources. Our objective is to assess the commercial viability of CCS given pervasive future uncertainties, particularly uncertainties about future natural gas and CO2 prices. Using data from the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM), we develop an interactive Excel‐based spreadsheet tool to compare levelized‐average costs of four different new‐construction 500 MW power plants: natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) with CCS, NCGG without CCS, supercritical coal with CCS, and supercritical coal without CCS. With low natural gas prices, the NGCC without the sequestration option is the dominant technology. Overall, CCS projects for either natural gas or coal projects are unlikely to be the lowest‐cost option for CO2 prices less than $50 per ton. Finally, we examine several potential policy levers that could affect the deployment of CCS. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd