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The dynamics of commodity return comovements
Author(s) -
Prokopczuk Marcel,
Wese Simen Chardin,
Wichmann Robert
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
journal of futures markets
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.88
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1096-9934
pISSN - 0270-7314
DOI - 10.1002/fut.22222
Subject(s) - economics , futures contract , econometrics , commodity , factor analysis , principal component analysis , persistence (discontinuity) , dynamic factor , dynamics (music) , variance (accounting) , financial economics , statistics , mathematics , finance , physics , geotechnical engineering , acoustics , engineering , accounting
We compare factor models with respect to their ability to explain commodity futures return comovements. A simple one‐factor model based on the first principal component extracted from a panel of commodity returns outperforms a macroeconomic model, and explains most of the realized comovements. We find that intersectoral correlations display more time variations than intrasectoral correlations. Dissecting the evidence further, we find that comovements are driven by the variation of the factor as opposed to exposure to it. Our results cast doubt on the persistence of the effects of financialization and emphasize the importance of the dynamics of the factor variance.