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The theory of storage in the crude oil futures market, the role of financial conditions
Author(s) -
Ahmadi Maryam,
Bashiri Behmiri Niaz,
Manera Matteo
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of futures markets
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.88
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1096-9934
pISSN - 0270-7314
DOI - 10.1002/fut.22113
Subject(s) - crude oil , futures contract , economics , scarcity , futures market , basis (linear algebra) , instability , financial market , financial economics , convenience yield , econometrics , finance , microeconomics , spot contract , mathematics , petroleum engineering , engineering , physics , geometry , mechanics
This study examines the impacts of inventory and financial instability on the basis of the crude oil market. The results show that, first, the basis rises with inventory, and this effect is higher during low inventory regimes. This validates the theory of storage in the crude oil market. Second, the basis rises with financial instability, and this effect is higher during turbulent regimes. These results warn the oil market participants that, to make decisions based on the basis variation, traditionally known as a signal of scarcity or abundance, the underlying cause of the variation has to be considered.