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Quantitative impact of correlation errors on basket options with time‐varying correlations
Author(s) -
Wong Amy S.K.
Publication year - 2012
Publication title -
journal of futures markets
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.88
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1096-9934
pISSN - 0270-7314
DOI - 10.1002/fut.20515
Subject(s) - econometrics , economics , value at risk , correlation , financial crisis , measure (data warehouse) , risk management , statistics , actuarial science , mathematics , computer science , finance , data mining , geometry , macroeconomics
This study examines the quantitative impact of correlation errors on basket options with time‐varying correlations and the risk measures (conditional) value‐at‐risk (VaR) in the framework of Basel II. The results show that risk measure misestimation due to correlation errors are the largest and most asymmetric for the at‐the‐money and out‐of‐the‐money basket option. Delta hedging of the basket option reduces risk but increases size and asymmetry effects substantially. Finally, the square‐root‐of‐time rule for VaR does not adjust adequately to correlation errors and consistently underestimates risk measures, which could lead to the VaR exceedance clustering observed during the recent financial crisis. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark