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Extreme volatility, speculative efficiency, and the hedging effectiveness of the oil futures markets
Author(s) -
Switzer Lorne N.,
ElKhoury Mario
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
journal of futures markets
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.88
H-Index - 55
eISSN - 1096-9934
pISSN - 0270-7314
DOI - 10.1002/fut.20235
Subject(s) - futures contract , volatility (finance) , economics , crude oil , spot contract , financial economics , spot market , futures market , econometrics , monetary economics , electricity , electrical engineering , petroleum engineering , engineering
This study investigates the efficiency of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) Division light sweet crude oil futures contract market during recent periods of extreme conditional volatility. Crude oil futures contract prices are found to be cointegrated with spot prices and unbiased predictors of future spot prices, including the period prior to the onset of the Iraqi war and until the formation of the new Iraqi government in April 2005. Both futures and spot prices exhibit asymmetric volatility characteristics. Hedging performance is improved when asymmetries are accounted for. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:61–84, 2007